COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

[Hepcat]

What worries me is how infections absolutely exploded within the next couple of weeks in countries such as Iran, Italy, France and Germany after the first few cases were diagnosed.:

Coronavirus Infection Graphs - NBC News

What lies in store here in North America over the next week or two now that the virus has taken hold?

[aura of foreboding]

The transmission is RAPID.  It's hard to believe it's all coming from droplets, but that's the info we're given, so we have to go with it. 

[Hepcat]

So four more confirmed cases in Ontario (all in the Toronto area of course) yesterday bringing the total to 32. They'd returned from Colorado, France, Washington DC and Germany earlier this month. Then of course there was the fellow diagnosed on Friday who'd returned from a conference in Las Vegas....

The common factor - air travel. As long as people continue to cavalierly travel by air, the spread of the coronavirus won't abate.
I wish this common sense prescription was being stressed by official sources and the news media but it's not.

[Monsters For Sale]

So four more confirmed cases in Ontario ....   ....  The common factor - air travel. As long as people continue to cavalierly travel by air, the spread of the coronavirus won't abate. .... 

A non stop coast-to-coast train has been discontinued here in the U.S. because of fears for people being confined together in close proximity for so long.  But what about all the commuters who take the trains to work and back home five days a week?

[Hepcat]

Trains aren't nearly as bad when it comes to risk as are airplanes or cruise ships. It's not just about the crowding, it's recirculated air that's the biggest risk factor and trains aren't hermetically sealed like planes. Moreover commuter trains stop every five to ten minutes while even long distance express trains stop every hour or so and open their doors to let passengers on-and-off.

"Planes are probably the riskiest form of transport when it comes to spreading illnesses. You'll often be mixing with people from around the globe, bringing you in contact with bugs your immune system hasn't met before," says Dr. Dan Robertson of video consultation platform Push Doctor.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization, an agency of the United Nations, recommends against application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks which is of course something that flies in the face of scientific common sense.    Heaven forbid that the WHO recommend something contrary to China's best interests. And some people still believe that the United Nations functions as something other than a mouthpiece cum lobbyist for third world countries.

[fearliath]

The transmission is RAPID.  It's hard to believe it's all coming from droplets, but that's the info we're given, so we have to go with it.

I don't believe for a second that is is spread just via droplets. It's somewhat enlightening to think about what that means. If you can smell something someone had for lunch (garlic, curry) you've just taken in a full dose of virus if they carry it. If they don't have bad breath you're still taking that all in from every person around you, you just can't smell it.

I was supposed to fly to northern Cali for work this week but I got out of that. They're telling me I'm supposed to go to Colorado at the end of the month (already have tickets). I hope they don't make me do that but they most probably will.

[Hepcat]

So on March 3rd a man in Manatee County across the bay from St. Petersburg in Florida tested positive for the coronavirus despite the fact that he'd neither travelled nor had any known contact with people who had travelled to the countries with major outbreaks. It was a case of "community" transmission.

This doesn't surprise me. In the winter months all kinds of people fly to Florida on planes that have carried passengers and crew from who knows where. Then they spend weeks in Florida. That of course is begging for trouble right there.

Florida could be especially vulnerable to a coronavirus outbreak, both because of the large number of international travelers who visit during the winter months and because of the state's large population of retirees.

Yes. Moreover Miami is the cruise ship capital of the United States. Therefore people have been flying to Miami and merrily embarking on cruise ships until the concerns started to be raised about cruise ships only about a week ago. Then they return to Miami and mingle for perhaps days. With the incubation period for the virus perhaps being up to fourteen days or more, it's a recipe for disaster.

The number of cases in Florida will explode in the next week or two. Florida will become perhaps the foremost trouble spot in the United States.

Meanwhile we're heading into spring break. The beaches of Florida beckon, and you know how young people are; they're invulnerable or at least they think they are.

There's no way this outbreak is going to be soon contained. It won't be contained until people's willingness to travel by air is dramatically reduced and by "dramatically" I'm not just talking about 50%.

[Hepcat]

I've made sure to stock up on chocolate bars and beer. Don't want to be caught shorthanded during this crisis. Btw, my beer of choice is Corona (mere coincidence). They're easy to find on shelves, nowadays.

Well at least something good is coming of this coronavirus thing.



Corona, the beer for people who don't actually like beer but drink because they want to be sociable.

The other good thing is the big drop in the price of oil. High oil prices act as a tax on the worldwide economy.

[Hepcat]

Here's the best site I've found to track infection numbers worldwide:

Coronavirus - Worldometers

[Mord]

Corona, the beer for people who don't actually like beer but drink because they want to be sociable.

Nobody who knows me has ever accused me of wanting to be sociable.

[Monsters For Sale]

Here's the best site I've found to track infection numbers worldwide:

Coronavirus - Worldometers

Good info - something that has been hard to get.  Interesting incubation statistics.  One case in a study of 5 was 19 days and another separate case was 27 days.  (Average was 6.4 days.)

Since the two longer periods "may" reflect double exposures, I guess getting it once doesn't mean you can't get it again, and again.  That's disturbing.

This one's gonna be a bugger this year, next year and the year after that.  Let's hope it mutates into something harmless soon - and not into something even more deadly.

[Hepcat]

Interesting incubation statistics.  One case in a study of 5 was 19 days and another separate case was 27 days.  (Average was 6.4 days.)

Health authorities are now getting a better feel for the incubation period:

People infected by the novel coronavirus tend to develop symptoms about five days after exposure, and almost always within two weeks, according to a study released Monday.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has used that standard during the current pandemic -- recommending, for example, that people self-quarantine for two weeks after traveling to countries with widespread coronavirus transmission, such as Italy or South Korea.

Let's hope it mutates into something harmless soon - and not into something even more deadly.

As disease causing pathogens mutate over time, blessedly the natural trend is for them to become less malignant over time. Quite simply those germs/viruses that kill the host patient also die. Therefore the pathogens that survive to reproduce were not the ones that killed their host.

The problem is of course that new diseases keep cropping up because of either transferal from other species that have developed immunity over time to humans with no such immunity. Or else the mutation of a previously benign microbe.

[Mord]

  just did a mini press briefing. He said he and his team are doing a "tremendous" job. He feels this is nowhere near as bad as the flu and things are being exaggerated by the "fake" news. Well, I sure feel safer now.

[Hepcat]

Don't trust Washington or any politician. It's bad. Look at how rapidly the virus has spread once its gotten a toe hold in any place.

[Mord]

Don't trust Washington or any politician. It's bad. Look at how rapidly the virus has spread once its gotten a toe hold in any place.

Trust me, I dont.